Thursday, November 28, 2019

Practical RMP: How To Create A Butterfly PI Matrix Report in Risk Management



The butterfly probability and impact (PI) matrix report is a highly effective report in risk management. The reasons are:
  • You can see both threats and opportunities together in one matrix. It will be for both pre- and post-mitigated risks. 
  • It’s quickly communicated as it doesn’t have too much content, rather just the content one needs to know on what is happening to the risks in a project. 
  • It’s visual and appealing. Hence, it is quickly understood by stakeholders, who don't want an in-depth risk reporting. 
In this post, I’ll outline 5 steps to generate the butterfly matrix report. These steps are taken from “Practical RMP with Primavera Risk Analysis” course. 

Note: If you are preparing for the Risk Management Professional (RMP®) exam, you may get questions on interpreting a butterfly matrix. Some successful RMPs have informed that they have received such questions. 

I’ve seen butterfly matrix for long and the PMI®-PMBOK® guide has this report from its 3rd edition onward. The below figure is taken from PMBOK, 6th edition. The PMBOK Guide calls it a probability and impact matrix (or PI matrix).


Image Credit - PMI-PMBOK Guide, 6th edition
As shown above, both threats (or negative risks) and opportunities (or positive risks) are shown in the matrix. You can plot the risks of your project on this matrix in order to show the current status of risks in your project. The probability scale is on the Y-axis, whereas the impact – positive or negative – are shown on the X-axis.

Why Called Butterfly PI Matrix? 
The PI matrix is named as butterfly matrix because of its shape. It has one wing on either side – threats (or negative risks) on one side and opportunities (or positive risks) on another. This, in turn, takes the shape of a butterfly and hence, the name.
Image Credit: clipart-library.com

Next, let’s see how to create this report.

Step – 1: Define your Probability and Impact Scales
You must define your probability and impact scales before you can create this report. This is done in “Plan Risk Management” process of Risk Management. After their creation, they will be documented in the Risk Management Plan.

Taking a real example for Practical RMP course, it will come as shown below. This I’ve listed as one of the benefits in using Practical RMP course.


As shown above, the probability scales used are from “Very Low (<=15%)” to “Very High (>70%)” and Impact scales and types used are for Schedule, Cost, Quality etc. This in turn creates the Probability and Impacting Scoring matrix with color coded information on the overall score of the risk. This is depicted in the below figure.


As shown above, if the risk score (multiplied value of P and I) falls between 1 to 5, it’s in green color, whereas if it falls between 24 to 72, it’s in red color. Similarly, it’s for the yellow color coding.

Step – 2: Populate the Risk Register
The next step involves creating and populating the risk registers with actual risks identified in your project. An actual risk register taken from a real project is shown below.


Analyzing the risk register, we have:
  • Total 8 risks from Risk 001 to Risk 008.
  • There are 7 negative risks and 1 positive risk.
  • Risk 006 is an opportunity whereas rest are threats.
This happens in the “Identify Risks” process of Risk Management and the above image is taken again from the Practical RMP course.

Step – 3: Qualify the Risks 
As you qualify the risks, the actual risk scores will now be entered into the risk register. This are basically the pre-mitigated risk scores for the individual project risks. The above figure (in Step - 2) has risk score for every risk. 

Qualification of risk is done in “Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis” process of Risk Management.

Step – 4: Develop and Implement Risk Responses 
In this step, you are developing the risk responses for both positive and negative risks. You can apply various mitigation strategies such a reduce (mitigate), accept, transfer (for threats) or exploit, enhance, accept (for opportunities). With that, you will have the post-mitigated risk scores for the individual project risks. 

This happens in the “Plan Risk Reponses” process of Risk Management. The response actions developed are subsequently implemented in “Implement Risk Reponses” process.


As shown above, now you have both pre- and post-mitigation details for the individual project risks. However, in a risk register containing many risks, you can’t quickly decipher what is the current risk status and whether you should act upon or just monitor the risks. 

This is where the Butterfly PI Matrix report comes in. 

Step – 5: Generate Butterfly PI Matrix Report
You can generate this report in under one minute with Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software tool.

To do so, go to Risk Register:
Reports – Report Manager…, which launches the below window.

To generate the report, select “ButterflyMatrix.xrb” file and then just click on “Publish” button. If the report is not generated, then ensure that you have “ButterflyMatrix.xsl” loaded for this report. This will be the stylesheet for this report in the PRA tool.

When the report is generated, it will have the following summary information.

It clearly lists out the total risks (proposed and open) and the number of high, medium, and low risks, along with the number of threats and opportunities.

Just below the report summary, you will have the pre-mitigation details of the risks in the Butterfly PI Matrix for both opportunities and threats. This is shown below.


As shown above, Risk 006 is an opportunity and it’s a high risk. On the other hand, Risk 003 is a low risk, Risk 007 is a medium risk and these are threats. Similarly, you have Risk 005 and Risk 008 noted as high risks. All these risks are highlighted in blue elliptical circles in the matrix.

Below the pre-mitigation details of the individual risks, you will have the post-mitigation details of the risks in the Butterfly PI Matrix report. This again will be for both opportunities and threats. This is shown below.


As shown above, post mitigation, Risk 005 has been brought down to very low zone, so also Risk 008 (it's a proposed one, but I've used it to show the functionality). Similarly, many other high or very high risks have been brought down to low or very low zones. All these risks are highlighted in blue. Risk 006 is no longer shown in the post-mitigated matrix because the risk score didn't cross the risk threshold. You can customize report further to see the details on the profiles of the risks, or you can take that information from generated summary risk report.

As you can see, with this report you can quickly find out what's happening to the risks in a project, the current status of individual project risks in a visual way. It's also effective and elegant.


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Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Top 20 Benefits: Practical RMP with Primavera Risk Analysis - 2



In the earlier part, we have seen the first top 10 benefits of Practical RMP course. In this part, we will see the next top 10 benefits. 

Practical RMP® with Oracle® Primavera Risk Analysis” is a unique course covering both the theory and practical aspects of risk management. Do note that there are a large number of benefits of using this course. I’ve only listed twenty.

For comparison, followings are taken:
  • Theory: Various Risk Management Standards from PMI (PMBOK Guide 6th edition, Practice Standard for Risk Management and Foundational Standard for Risk Management).
  • Hands-on Practical: Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software.

For complete course breakdown, duration, price, and other details, you can refer: 

Practical RMP Course

Now, let’s see the remaining top benefits. 

Benefit # 11: (Risk) Probabilistic Branching – Theory Vs Practical 
The concept of probabilistic branching is newly introduced in the PMBOK guide, 6th edition. With probabilistic branching risks are included in the project model as probabilistic branches, i.e., you model the risk of different outcomes occurring in a project. To know more on probabilistic branching, you can refer this article on Representations of Uncertainties.

With Practical RMP course, you will easily know how to create such branching and hence the impact on risk analysis. A probabilistic branching for an activity “PRD Approval” (A1030) is shown below. It has 3 branches with acitivities A1160, A1050, and A1040. All these are probabilistically linked to activity A1030. This is taken from a real project.



Benefit # 12: Monte Carlo Analysis – Theory Vs Practical
In the below figure, coming as result of Monte Carlo analysis, we have 45% chance to meet the planned end date, i.e., 21st of August (the planned finish date). To have a chance of 80% the finish date has to be pushed (25th August). And maximum the schedule can stretch up-to 1st September.

  
Benefit # 13: Risk Sensitivity Analysis – Theory Vs Practical 
Risk sensitivity technique is applied in the quantitative risk analysis. One example of it is Tornado Diagram. With the help of the software tool, various sensitivity analysis can be done. A tornado diagram, taken from the project from this course is shown below. 

This is for Cost Sensitivity Analysis. It tells activity A1020 has the highest impact on the cost, whereas activity A1140 has the lowest impact.


Benefit # 14: Risk Criticality Analysis – Theory Vs Practical 
Criticality analysis tells which elements of the Monte Carlo analysis model (basically the tasks) have the greatest effect on the project's critical path. It is also used in quantitative risk analysis. A criticality analysis done with a real project is shown below. It tells activity A1070 has 100% and A1130 has 0% as criticality indices.


Benefit # 15: Risk Adjusted S-curve Analysis – Theory Vs Practical 
Theoretically, S-curve analysis is mentioned in the risk management standards. Practically, below, the curve shown is via the distribution analyzer of the PRA tool. 

Based on your confidence needed for the project, e.g., with 50% or 80% confidence, you can determine the contingency reserve.  



Benefit # 16: Risk Response Planning – Theory Vs Practical 
There are various risk response strategies such as transfer, mitigate, exploit, accept – for both negative (threats) and negative (positive) risks. This has been compared with the risk mitigation strategies in the PRA tool. In Primavera Risk Analysis tool, there are certain differences in terms, but underlying concepts remain similar.  

The risk register taken from a real project with risk mitigation strategies is shown below.



Benefit # 17: Risk Response Actions – Theory Vs Practical 
After you choose the risk responses for the individual project risks, you can have risk response actions. Like every risk has risk owner, you can also have risk response owner for each action. This also can be done with the PRA tool.

As shown below, for Risk 005, we have two risk response actions with associated risk response owners, start date/finish date of actions, associated costs etc. This is shown in the bottom panel of the selected risk.


Benefit # 18: Integrated Risk Management and Project Management Plan – Theory Vs Practical 
After you develop the risk responses and risk response actions, you integrate them into the consolidated project management plan. Particularly, the unconditional response actions are integrated into the plan and tracked. As noted in the PMBOK guide 6th edition, it is done with the help of Project Management Information System (PMIS). In our case, the PMIS is the PRA.

An integrated plan is shown below with risk response actions integrated into the plan. As you can see the response actions  are integrated into the plans. Because these actions are ging to impact your project schedule and cost. And both threats and opportunities are highlighted with post mitigation probabilities. Risk 006 is at 0%, whereas Risk 001 is at 8%. 



Benefit # 19: Risk Exposure and Exposure Burnup/down – Theory Vs Practical 
The risk exposure shows the overall exposure of the project to the known risks, usually in terms of cost. With PRA you can create the risk exposure plans. It can be for both pre-and post-mitigated ones.

The below risk exposure plan is a pre-mitigated one and informs that the risk exposure has gone up, over time. 


Benefit # 20: Work Performance Reports – Theory Vs Practical 
As the standards of risk management, during risk monitoring, you generate various work performance reports. There are various reports which are available – risk matrix report, risk score report, butterfly matrix report, criticality distribution reports etc.

A post-mitigated risk matrix, from a live project is shown below. It’s created with the help of PRA Tool. 


As noted in the earlier post, at the end of the course, you would not only learn the theories from various risk management standards, but also the practical aspects of it with multiple hands-on practical sessions. You can download all the solution files to validate with your understanding. 

Details on "Practical RMP" course is available at: 


Sunday, November 24, 2019

Top 20 Benefits: Practical RMP with Primavera Risk Analysis - 1



Practical RMP® with Oracle® Primavera Risk Analysis” is a unique course covering both the theory and practical aspects of risk management. In this series, we will see the top 20 benefits. 

In the first part, we will check on ten benefits. In the next part, you can check remaining ones. Do note that there are a large number of benefits of using this course. I've listed only twenty. 

For comparison, followings are taken:
  • Theory: Various Risk Management Standards from PMI (PMBOK Guide 6th edition, Practice Standard for Risk Management and Foundational Standard for Risk Management).
  • Hands-on Practical: Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software.
For complete course breakdown, duration, price, and other details, you can refer: 

Practical RMP Course

Now, let’s check on the benefits.

Benefit # 1: Risk Management Plan – Theory Vs Practical 
Risk Management Plan is prepared in the planning process of Plan Risk Management. It has contents such as project description, risk management methodology being used, roles, responsibilities of the manager, probability and impact definitions, probability and impact matrix etc. A real plan is shown below.



In this course, you will be preparing a risk management plan on own your own (in .DOCX/PDF format). In the solution files, you will have a complete risk management plan available. 

Benefit # 2: Risk Register – Theory Vs Practical 
Risk Register is prepared in the planning process, details of which are outlined in all the Risk Management standards. This course tells you how they are done in a real time project. 
Each risk will have a risk profile, which will include the Risk ID, title, RBS association, cause, effect, description etc., which will be outlined in the “Risk Details” tab in the bottom panel of the Risk Register.

A part of real risk register from a real project is shown below. It is prepared with the PRA software.



Benefit # 3: Risk Report – Theory Vs Practical 
Risk report, like risk register is also prepared in the planning process. It will have overall project risk and summary level information for high priority risks, primarily. It can also many other information such as information on overall risk exposure, risk criticality analysis, risk sensitivity analysis. 
This course tells how to create a Risk Report with the PRA software. A part of real risk report, from one of the practical used in this course, is shown below.




Benefit # 4: Risk Probability and Impact Scales – Theory Vs Practical
Risk analysis will be based on the probability and impact scales, which you set during the planning process. These are documented in the Risk Management Plan. The impact can be across various areas such as scope, schedule, cost, quality, performance.

A real probability and impact scale drawn with PRA software is shown below. I’ve added two more impact types related to scope and quality. 



As you can see, you can customize theses scales. For example, do add another impact type, just click on “Add Impact Type” button in the above screen. 

Benefit # 5: Risk Probability and Impact Matrix – Theory Vs Practical
Risk probability and impact are the two key characteristics of a risk, on which analysis of the risk is done. While the risk management standards talk about the theoretical aspects, in this course, with the help of the software, the matrix is prepared.
A real risk PI matrix, taken from one of the course’s lessons, is shown below. 



Benefit # 6: Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) – Theory Vs Practical
Risk breakdown structure (RBS) is a key component which will be used to categorize the risks. It also be used while planning for risk responses, e.g., you are planning to have a response to a set of risks belonging to one category. A real RBS taken from a real project is shown below. 




Benefit # 7: Other Risk Assessment Parameters – Theory Vs Practical
Other than probability and impact values, there can be other risk assessment parameters such as Risk Manageability, Risk Proximity, Risk Detectability, Risk Propinquity etc. With PRA software, you can model these risk assessment parameters. In fact, the tool comes with some risk assessment parameters such as Risk Manageability, Risk Proximity. A real one used in one of the projects is shown below. 




Benefit # 8: Risk Bubble Chart – Theory Vs Practical
Risk bubble chart is newly introduced in the PMBOK Guide 6th edition. During qualitative risk analysis, you can have a 3-dimensional (3D) representation of risk related data, graphically. As you export you risk data to a spreadsheet, you can draw a risk bubble chart.  A real risk bubble chart from this course is shown below. 



You have risk manageability, risk proximity and risk impact (size of bubble) shown in this chart.

Benefit # 9: Qualitative Risk Analysis Vs Quantitative Risk Analysis – Theory vs Practical
Both the aspect of risk analysis – qualitative and quantitative – are done in risk management. 

The key aspects of Quantitative Risk Analysis are to analyze the overall project risk, determine the chance of project success and find out the contingency reserve. Many think individual risks in the risk register are not quantitatively analyzed, which is not right. Individual risks are also quantitively analyzed and they become part of the risk report. 

A quantitative risk register with quantified values is shown below. This is created with PRA software. 



Benefit # 10: Risk Probability Distributions – Theory Vs Practical
When you quantitatively analyze the risk, you need to have the probability distribution values of the risks. There can be various types of probability distributions such as Triangular, BetaPert, Normal, Lognormal, Cumulative, Discrete etc. 
You can apply this for the entire project and also for individual tasks. For individual tasks case, below you have “BetaPert” applied to an activity named “PRD Preparation”. You can apply other probability distributions as well. 



At the end of the course, you would not only learn the theories from various risk management standards, but also the practical aspects of it with multiple hands-on practical sessions. You can download all the solution files to validate with your understanding. (files will be .PLAN, .RRX, .RSK, .XER etc. and you can load them into the PRA software to check and compare with your answers)

Details on "Practical RMP" course is available at: 
Practical RMP with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis


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Monday, November 18, 2019

New Course - Practical RMP with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis





I am pleased to announce the availability of the new course:
Practical RMP with Primavera Risk Analysis.

This course prepares you fully for Risk Management Professional certification (RMP®) from Project Management Institute (PMI®) and equips you as a hands-on professional on risk analysis with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis® (PRA) software. This course is based on PMI's latest standards for Risk Management, and the latest release of PRA software.

This course comes with Full Money Back Guarantee, which has been outlined later in this post. 

The earlier version of this course has been used around the world in various countries in different geographies - North America, Middle East and Asia. Project Managers, Risk Managers, Senior Managers, Project Directors and Certified Risk Management Professionals have used this course. This course also has been used by Doctoral Candidates pursuing their PhD programs. 

Need for Practical RMP course
The RMP certification from PMI is a global benchmark to recognize proficiency in Project Risk Management. However, the standards, reference books and other content on which the RMP examination is based – are completely theoretical. Though theory is important to know, real-world risk management is hands-on and practical oriented.

In my interactions with managers, I've received many requests on templates for risk register, risk report, risk PI matrix etc., as many have never used or even seen one. However, templates really don't help you much - it barely covers the first few steps. What you really need to know is the application of risk management understanding on live, real-world projects.

Hence, this course has been designed, so that you:
  • Understand the theory of risk management.
  • Learn how to apply the theory with Primavera Risk Analysis software.
  • Use practical exercises with real projects. 
  • Check the solutions (with solutions files) to validate your understanding.

Course Breakdown
This course has been divided into 12 lessons.  The lessons are:
  • Welcome and Software Installations (64 pages)
  • Lesson 1 – Introduction (17 pages)
  • Lesson 2 - Risk Management Framework (35 pages)
  • Lesson 3 - Risk Management Principles and Concepts (29 pages)
  • Lesson 4 - Introduction to Risk Management Processes (20 pages)
  • Lesson 5 - Plan Risk Management (48 pages)
  • Lesson 6 - Identify Risks (32 pages)
  • Lesson 7 - Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (38 pages)
  • Lesson 8 - Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (57 pages)
  • Lesson 9 - Plan Risk Responses (47 pages)
  • Lesson 10 - Implement Risk Responses (29 pages)
  • Lesson 11 - Monitor Risks (44 pages)
  • Lesson 12 - Tips and Tricks (29 pages)
Under “Welcome and Software Installations”, you will have detailed instructions on how to use the course, along with import/export functionalities of PRA with Microsoft Project and Primavera P6.  There will be downloadable copies for software installation, which are needed for this course.
  • Step-by-Step guide for Primavera Risk Analysis software.
  • Step-by-Step guide for Primavera P6 Project Management software.

Overall, you have:
  • Number of pages: 489
  • Number of practical (step-by-step): 16
  • Number of solution files: 63

Proceeding with the Course Content 
Each lesson will first have theory, covering various Risk Management standards: 
  • PMBOK Guide 6th edition (latest edition of the PMBOK Guide and enforced in 2019 for RMP exam). 
  • Practice Standard for Risk Management.
  • Foundational Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs and Projects released in 2019.
Next, in the practical side of the lessons, you will learn:
  • How these Risk Management theory maps to the elements in PRA software, e.g., while the Risk Register is also called as Risk Register in PRA, the Risk Report is known as Summary Risk Report. 
  • How to use the PRA software by various configurations, e.g., configurations for probability distributions, sensitivity analysis, criticality analysis. 
Finally, you will have:
  • Hands-on exercises with a project, which is developed incrementally. 
  • It means as you move across the processes, the exercise will build-upon the previous lesson's solutions. Step-by-step instructions will be available to work on the exercises. 
  • Solution files to check to validate your understanding. You can download all the solutions files.

There will be a number of solutions files such as docx (for plans, reports), .xer (for project plans), .plan (for risk management plans), .rrx and .xls (for risk register), .rsk (for risk analysis) etc. These you can load into the PRA software to compare with your own prepared solutions. 

Eligibility Criteria
The eligibility criteria are in sync with PMI's Risk Management Professional (RMP) certification criteria. It is outlined here – Link. (check “Certification Process”)

It's not mandatory that you proceed with the RMP certification. If you want to solid Risk Management understanding with Hands-on practical on PRA software, you can proceed with the course. Many professionals have done so, because that was their need.

Applicability and Validity
  • PMI-RMP Exam – Latest (2019); PRA software – 8.7.5 (and earlier)
  • Access – 1 year from the date of purchase
  • Price - Rs 10,449 / $149 USD
  • Available since - November, 2019
  • Format for Theory - Both in PDF and Presentation
  • Format for Practical - Docx for Exercises, Solutions files in .xer, .plan, .rrx, .rsk, docx, .xlsx etc.
  • Mode – Online (Classroom also available)
  • Status – Available
    (accessible via laptop/desktop)
This course comes in two variants – Online Learning (noted above) and Classroom learning. For classroom learning, it will be a 3-day classroom session. For more details, refer this link: 
Practical RMP Course 

The details on benefits, certification process, who can attend and frequently asked questions (FAQ) etc. - for both Online Learning and Classroom Learning - are available in the above link.

Full Money Back Guarantee
This course comes with moneyback guarantee. For moneyback guarantee, the premise is simple and straightforward. There are no tricky terms and conditions. 

You try the course for 15 days (online learning) or join the class (classroom learning). If you don’t like the course, your fully money will be refunded. 

Again, do note that your FULL money will be refunded. No questions asked.


***Note***: Every buyer of this course will get a complimentary copy of the book:
I Want To Be A RMP, Second Edition 

This book will be completely free of cost. I want you use not only the practical, but also know the theory aspects well, so that you clear the PMI-RMP exam. This is applicable for both online and classroom learning. Many successful RMPs have referred this book and many aspiring RMPs are currently using the latest edition of this book. 

Course Index
The complete index of Practical RMP course is available in the below embedded document. You can scroll to see the content.To see the complete index, separately, use this Link.




If you want to purchase the course of Practical PMP with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis, please send an email to: managementyogi@gmail.com.


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